The Direct Demand Index
Direct traffic — users who type a URL or use a bookmark — is the cleanest available signal of underlying brand demand. We track it quarterly, comparing same-quarter year-on-year to control for seasonality.
What it measures
Direct traffic volume cannot be inflated by SEO tactics or platform algorithms. It requires the user to actively choose the publisher — making it the closest proxy for habitual brand demand we can measure at scale.
Headline finding
Every publisher in the index has lost direct traffic over two years. Q1 2026 visits are down an average of 25% vs. Q1 2024. The Independent (-38%), The Mirror (-34%) and The Sun (-32%) are the steepest decliners; BBC News and The Telegraph hold up best at -15-16%.
01
Headlines Two-year change in direct visits, Q1 2024 to Q1 2026.
Average decline
−25%
Across all 8 publishers, Q1 2024 → Q1 2026
Steepest decline
The Independent
-38% in 2 years; -34% in last 12 months alone
Most resilient
BBC News
-15% over 2 years — the smallest fall in the index
Direct share riser
The Telegraph
Direct share up 5.7pp despite volume falling 16%
Universal decline is the headline, but it isn't uniform. Daily Mail's direct share is rising even as volume falls — suggesting their referral traffic is collapsing faster than their loyal habit. That asymmetry is where the strategic stories live.
02
Q1 same-quarter, three years Direct visits in Q1 2024, Q1 2025 and Q1 2026 — controlling for seasonality. Refreshes each quarter.
Direct visits, Q1 of each year
Millions of monthly visits, summed across the quarter · sorted by 2-year change (worst first)
03
Full trendline, all quarters Quarterly direct visits since Q2 2023 — the longer view, indexed to 100 at the start so trajectories are comparable across publishers of different sizes.
Direct visits over time
Indexed: Q2 2023 = 100 for each publisher · below 100 = below 2-year-ago baseline
04
The data in detail Click any column to re-sort. Switch metric to view shares, deltas or absolute volumes.
| Publisher | Segment | Q1 2024 (M) | Q1 2025 (M) | Q1 2026 (M) | Metric |
|---|
05
Where the demand is collapsing Year-on-year and 2-year changes, with share movement. Darker red = larger fall; green = growth (rare).
06
How the index is built Same-quarter year-on-year tracking, refreshed each quarter to roll forward the comparison window.
Methodology in five steps
- Source the data. Monthly direct traffic volumes (and direct's share of total traffic) for each publisher's UK domain from Similarweb, April 2023 onwards.
- Aggregate to quarterly totals. Sum the three monthly visit counts within each calendar quarter. Same-quarter rollups control for the strong seasonality in news traffic (election cycles, sport, school terms).
- Compare same-quarter, year-on-year. Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025 vs Q1 2026. We refresh the index each quarter, so the next release will lead with Q2 comparisons, the one after with Q3, and so on.
- Track both volume and share. A publisher whose direct volume is falling but whose direct share is rising is losing its referral channels even faster than its core audience — a different strategic situation from one losing across the board.
- Rank by 2-year volume change. The headline ranking. Rank 1 = least negative. We don't expect anyone to be positive any time soon — this is a relative measure of decline, not an absolute scorecard.